Jet Fuel Crisis 2026: Which European Airports Face the Greatest Risk of Shortages?
The last pre-crisis jet fuel cargoes that left the Persian Gulf before the Hormuz disruption have now arrived at their European destinations. As of 15 April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under naval blockade, marking a clear shift from a supply-flow shock to a stock-depletion phase.
While crude oil is still available in many parts of the world, the real bottleneck is refining capacity and configuration. Complex refineries capable of maximising jet fuel yield are limited, and ramping up output takes time. This has created uneven pressure across the supply chain and heightened concern about physical shortages at key airports.
Boston Warwick has been tracking this situation closely. For earlier analysis, see our previous reports:
- Hormuz Crisis 2026: Jet Fuel Shockwaves Across Europe
- Hormuz Crisis 2026: Downloadable report
- Hormuz Crisis 2026: Update 5 April 2026
To help the industry understand where the immediate risks lie, we have assessed the major UK and European airports and ranked them by realistic likelihood of running out of jet fuel first. This ranking is based purely on airport on-site stock days (fewest days = highest risk).
Important note: The UK government has confirmed “plentiful” national stockpiles, which gives UK hubs (Heathrow and Gatwick) significantly more resilience than their on-site stocks alone would suggest. Continental airports generally have weaker national buffers.
| Rank (Risk of Running Out First) | Airport | Country | Daily Jet Usage (kbpd) | Delivery Method & % | Airport On-Site Stock (days) | National Strategic Reserves Buffer | Exposure Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Highest risk) | Gatwick (LGW) | UK | 35–40 | Pipeline 60%, truck/barge 40% | 5–8 | High (UK govt: “plentiful” national stocks) | Smallest on-site stock; highest immediate risk among the group. |
| 2 | Heathrow (LHR) | UK | 90–100 | Pipeline (Fawley/Buncefield) 70–80%, barge/truck 20–30% | 7–10 | High (UK govt: “plentiful” national stocks) | Largest UK hub with massive daily usage; national stocks provide comfort but volume is very high. |
| 3 | Madrid (MAD) | Spain | 30–35 | Pipeline/truck + imports ~60% | 8–10 | Low-Medium (Spain limited national) | Lower daily burn but very limited national reserves if on-site stock is depleted. |
| 4 | CDG/Orly | France | 70–80 combined | Pipeline/barge from Le Havre/Donges ~65%, imports 35% | 8–12 | Medium (France ~7–8 days national) | Very high combined usage; medium national reserves. |
| 5 | Munich (MUC) | Germany | 25–30 | Pipeline/truck ~80%, imports 20% | 9–12 | Medium (Germany ~7 days national) | Medium-scale hub with moderate national buffer. |
| 6 | Frankfurt (FRA) | Germany | 50–55 | Pipeline + barge ~70%, imports 30% | 10–14 | Medium (Germany ~7 days national) | Major hub with good infrastructure but still exposed once on-site stocks drop. |
| 7 (Lowest risk) | Amsterdam (AMS) | Netherlands | 45–50 | Barge/pipeline (ARA) 85%+, imports 15% | 12–15 | Medium-High (Netherlands strong ARA-linked) | Strong ARA buffer and highest on-site stock among the group. |
Table note: Ranked strictly by airport on-site stock days (fewest days = highest risk of running out first). UK hubs benefit significantly from government-confirmed plentiful national stockpiles.
To make the picture even clearer, the charts below visualise the data:
On-Site Jet Fuel Stock Days at Major European Airports
On-Site Stock Days vs National Strategic Buffer
Key Takeaways
- UK hubs (Heathrow and Gatwick) still rank highest on immediate risk due to high import reliance, but the UK government’s confirmation of “plentiful” national stockpiles gives them meaningful extra comfort.
- Continental hubs (CDG/Orly, Frankfurt, Munich) have stronger pipeline and barge infrastructure but generally weaker national buffers.
- ARA-linked airports (e.g. Amsterdam) remain the most resilient in the short term thanks to their direct access to high ARA hub stocks.
The situation is evolving rapidly. ACI Europe has warned that a systemic jet-fuel shortage could become reality within three weeks if stable new supply does not resume. We expect the next 10–14 days to be critical as airlines and airports finalise summer contingency plans.
At Boston Warwick we will continue to track refinery ramps (especially US Gulf Coast and North African sources), tanker movements, and airport-specific stock levels in real time.
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James Doyle | Boston Warwick – 15 April 2026