Jet Fuel Crisis Update: European Top 50 & Top 20 Non-European Countries – 4 May 2026
Our analysis helps airlines, airports, investors and policymakers anticipate risks and seize opportunities in a rapidly changing sector.
We publish our updated European Top 50 Jet Fuel Risk Ranking as of 2 May 2026, together with the corrected Top 20 non-European airports and countries most at risk. The data shows the crisis has entered a more acute phase in Europe, while non-European risk remains concentrated in island nations and countries with thin buffers and high import dependence.
Key Movements in the Mid-Table – 2 May 2026
The most significant shifts occurred in the middle of the ranking. German secondary hubs moved up three places each, while Vienna, Brussels and Lisbon dropped nine places. Twenty Eastern European, Baltic and lower-ranked airports were shifted down exactly one place.
| New Rank | Airport | Previous Rank (29 Apr) | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nice (NCE) | 26 | ↓3 | Displaced by German hubs moving up |
| 24 | Berlin Brandenburg (BER) | 27 | ↑3 | Improved stock levels and recent tanker arrivals |
| 25 | Hamburg (HAM) | 28 | ↑3 | Improved stock levels and recent tanker arrivals |
| 27 | Vienna (VIE) | 18 | ↓9 | Revised national buffer estimates and higher ME caution |
| 31 | Prague (PRG) | 30 | ↓1 | Swedish fuel limitation ripple effects on regional buffers |
Full 50-Airport Dataset Now Available
Download the complete Excel file with all 50 airports, previous ranks, full risk notes, stock days, national buffers and ME/Hormuz exposure data.
Download Full Dataset (Excel)Global Risk Beyond Europe: Top 20 Non-European Airports & Countries Most at Risk (2 May 2026)
Outside Europe the risk profile remains broadly stable since 29 April, with the highest exposure concentrated in island nations and countries with thin national buffers and heavy reliance on imported jet fuel. The Philippines continues to lead the non-European risk ranking.
| Rank | Airport / Hub | IATA | Country / Region | Stock Days | ME/Hormuz Exposure | Risk Notes (2 May 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila | MNL | Philippines | 4–6 | High | Lowest buffers in Asia; island nation with limited alternative supply routes. Government emergency procurement active. |
| 2 | Jakarta | CGK | Indonesia | 5–7 | High | Archipelago logistics increase vulnerability; thin strategic reserves. |
| 3 | Cairo | CAI | Egypt | 5–7 | Very High | Regional instability and currency pressures continue to strain supply. |
| 4 | Lagos | LOS | Nigeria | 4–6 | High | Very low on-site stock; frequent operational disruptions already occurring. |
| 5 | Mumbai | BOM | India | 6–8 | Medium–High | Strong demand growth; national reserves adequate but import dependence rising. |
| 6 | Bangkok | BKK | Thailand | 5–7 | High | Tourism recovery driving demand; limited domestic refining flexibility. |
| 7 | Seoul Incheon | ICN | South Korea | 6–8 | High | Regional stockpiling underway; government reviewing conservation measures. |
| 8 | Tokyo (Haneda/Narita) | HND/NRT | Japan | 7–9 | High | Strong national reserves but high ME product dependence for summer peak. |
| 9 | Johannesburg | JNB | South Africa | 7–10 | Medium | African gateway; exposure mainly through imported crude. |
| 10 | São Paulo | GRU | Brazil | 7–9 | Low–Medium | Domestic ethanol blending provides partial buffer. |
| 11 | Mexico City | MEX | Mexico | 6–8 | Medium | US Gulf coast supply offers resilience; political uncertainty is a watch item. |
| 12 | Sydney | SYD | Australia | 8–11 | Medium | Strong strategic reserves; diversified sourcing reduces immediate risk. |
| 13 | Santiago | SCL | Chile | 8–10 | Low–Medium | Strong South American position with diversified supply. |
| 14 | Dubai | DXB | UAE | 7–9 | High | Direct crude access and national reserves provide significant buffer. |
| 15 | Doha | DOH | Qatar | 6–8 | Very High | Heavy regional refining dependence; government closely monitoring offtake. |
| 16 | Singapore | SIN | Singapore | 7–9 | High | Good strategic reserves; any Malacca Strait disruption would increase pressure. |
| 17 | Hong Kong | HKG | Hong Kong | 6–8 | High | Regional hub status maintains pressure; mainland supply lines monitored. |
| 18 | Kuala Lumpur | KUL | Malaysia | 6–8 | High | Similar profile to Singapore with slightly stronger national reserves. |
| 19 | Buenos Aires | EZE | Argentina | 7–9 | Low–Medium | Improving domestic production; still reliant on imports for peak demand. |
| 20 | Bogotá | BOG | Colombia | 6–8 | Medium | Stable regional position with moderate import dependence. |
Visual Analysis: Supply Scenarios & Stock Depletion
European Jet Fuel Supply Mix – Summer 2026 (Projected)
Projected On-Site Stock Days – Top 10 European Airports (May–August 2026)
What This Means for Airlines, Airports & Investors
Northern Italian and Nordic operators should accelerate contingency planning for potential rationing or slot reductions in July–August. UK and Dutch hubs remain relatively resilient thanks to diversified supply.
Airline Reactions (1–2 May): Ryanair and easyJet have both confirmed they are increasing fuel hedging for Q3 by 15–20% and are reviewing possible capacity reductions at Milan and Scandinavian airports. Lufthansa Group stated it is “closely monitoring the situation in Northern Italy and the Nordics” but has not yet adjusted its summer schedule.
Market Impact: Jet fuel futures for July–August delivery have risen 4.2% since 29 April, with swap spreads widening notably for Northern European delivery points. Airlines with high exposure to the affected airports are expected to report higher fuel costs in their Q2 results.
Passenger Demand: Early booking data for July shows a 3–5% softening in leisure bookings to Milan, Venice and Stockholm compared with the same period last year. Business travel remains more resilient for now.
Policy Watch: The European Commission’s DG MOVE issued a statement on 1 May confirming it is “actively monitoring jet fuel supply across the Union” and will convene an emergency meeting of national civil aviation authorities if stock levels fall below critical thresholds in any member state.
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- European Commission – DG MOVE Jet Fuel Monitoring Report & Emergency Meeting Statement, 1 May 2026
- IATA – Fuel Price & Supply Update, 1 May 2026
- Eurocontrol – Network Operations Plan Summer 2026 (v2.1)
- Swedish Ministry of Infrastructure – Fuel Limitation Decree, 29 April 2026
- Reuters – “Ryanair and easyJet increase Q3 hedging amid Nordic and Italian fuel concerns”, 2 May 2026
- Bloomberg – “European jet fuel stocks fall to 18-month low; futures up 4.2%”, 30 April 2026
- Airline statements: Lufthansa Group, Ryanair, easyJet (1–2 May 2026)
- US Energy Information Administration – Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 30 April 2026
- International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report, May 2026 (advance excerpt)