Global Jet Fuel Crisis: The 20 Non-European Countries Most Exposed
26 April 2026 | By James Doyle, Boston Warwick
While Europe’s airports continue to dominate headlines, the jet-fuel shock triggered by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now rippling across the globe. In our latest European Top 50 ranking published today, northern Italian airports (Treviso, Milan Linate and Venice) have surged to the top of the risk list, while UK hubs have seen noticeable improvement from accelerated US Gulf Coast imports.
Yet the crisis is far from Europe-centric. Many countries outside the continent face even more acute vulnerabilities — some with far thinner strategic reserves and fewer immediate alternatives. This article examines the 20 non-European countries most exposed to the current disruption and explains why the shock is proving so difficult to contain.
The 20 Non-European Countries Most Exposed to the Jet Fuel Crisis
The global jet-fuel market is tightly interconnected. Roughly 20% of Europe’s pre-crisis supply flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the same chokepoint supplies a large share of Asia-Pacific refining. When that route is blocked, the effects cascade rapidly. The table below ranks the 20 non-European countries most at risk based on reliance on Middle East crude, strategic stock levels, refining configuration, and recent government or airline actions.
| Rank | Country | Est. Jet Fuel Cover (days) | Key Exposure Driver | Recent Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philippines | 5–10 | 90%+ Middle East crude | National energy emergency declared; airlines sourcing fuel abroad |
| 2 | Pakistan | 6–12 | Heavy Gulf dependence | NOTAM issued; foreign carriers must carry maximum fuel |
| 3 | Australia | 25–30 | Asian import chains strained | Actively sourcing US cargoes |
| 4 | Japan | 15–25 | High Gulf crude imports + refinery run cuts | Government coordinating demand management |
| 5 | South Korea | 20–30 | Major exporter now restricting exports | Export curbs to protect domestic supply |
| 6 | Vietnam | 10–15 | High dependence on China/Thailand jet fuel | Suspending international and domestic routes |
| 7 | India | 15–25 | Significant jet fuel import reliance | Capacity discipline and hedging adjustments |
| 8 | New Zealand | 20–30 | Almost entirely import-dependent | Full contingency planning activated |
| 9 | Singapore | 20–30 | Major refining hub but crude via Hormuz | Restricting exports to safeguard domestic market |
| 10 | Thailand | 15–25 | High Gulf crude dependence | Restricting jet fuel exports |
| 11 | Malaysia | 20–30 | Significant import reliance | Limiting exports to protect domestic supply |
| 12 | Indonesia | 20–35 | Growing demand with limited domestic refining | Watching regional ripple effects |
| 13 | Taiwan | 15–25 | High Asian supply-chain dependence | Monitoring closely |
| 14 | Hong Kong | 15–25 | Relies on regional Asian refining | Capacity cuts by major carriers |
| 15 | United Arab Emirates | 20–30 | Internal refining impacted | Domestic priority measures in place |
| 16 | Saudi Arabia | 25–35 | Domestic refining and logistics strained | Internal priority measures reducing exports |
| 17 | Qatar | 20–30 | Gulf producer with export constraints | Operational adjustments reported |
| 18 | Kuwait | 20–30 | Major jet fuel exporter but tankers blocked | Export flows severely reduced |
| 19 | South Africa | 15–25 | Import-dependent with thin buffers | Fuel shortage warnings issued |
| 20 | Nigeria | 15–25 | High import reliance despite being an oil producer | Domestic fuel shortages compounding global pressure |
→ Download the full European Top 50 dataset (updated today)
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Subscribe to UpdatesRegional Exposure Breakdown
Asia-Pacific accounts for the overwhelming majority of non-European exposure. The region’s refining industry was built on the assumption of reliable Middle East crude and product flows. When those flows are disrupted, the effects are immediate and severe because most countries have limited strategic stocks and few alternative suppliers that can scale up quickly.
Deep Dive: The Top 5 Most Exposed Countries
1. Philippines
The Philippines is the most exposed country outside Europe. More than 90% of its oil comes from the Middle East, and it has virtually no domestic refining capacity to fall back on. President Marcos has already declared a national energy emergency and publicly warned that grounding planes is a “distinct possibility.” Airlines have been instructed to source fuel outside the country wherever possible. Several international airports have already refused refuelling requests for Philippine carriers.
2. Pakistan
Pakistan’s airports authority issued a NOTAM directing foreign airlines to carry maximum fuel from abroad and minimise local uplift. Domestic conservation measures and possible work-from-home mandates are under active discussion. With limited strategic reserves, the country is highly vulnerable to any further tightening in Asian supply chains.
3. Australia
Australia is actively seeking cargoes from the US and other alternative sources after China, Singapore and South Korea restricted exports to protect domestic markets. The government is monitoring its 30-day reserve buffer very closely. As one of the most distant markets from the US Gulf, Australia is particularly sensitive to trans-Pacific freight rates.
4. Japan
Domestic refiners have been cutting runs amid persistently high crude costs, leading to declining stocks. The government is coordinating closely with airlines on demand-management strategies and is exploring temporary import diversification from the US and any feasible Middle East reroutes.
5. South Korea
As a major jet fuel exporter, South Korea is now considering export caps to protect domestic supply. This decision reflects the growing realisation that the crisis is not just a European problem but a global one that requires every major player to prioritise its own needs.
Why Saudi Arabia Is on the List
A frequent question we receive is why Saudi Arabia appears in the top 20. Although the Kingdom is one of the world’s largest crude producers, its domestic refining configuration and tanker logistics have been strained by the Hormuz closure. Internal priority measures have reduced export availability, creating knock-on effects for dependent markets in Asia and Africa. This illustrates how even major producers can face short-term constraints when a critical chokepoint is blocked.
What Stakeholders Should Watch Next
Airlines and investors should monitor US Gulf export volumes, Asian refinery run rates, and any further government conservation measures. The crisis is exposing pre-existing weaknesses in supply chains that were built on the assumption of uninterrupted Hormuz traffic. Even if the strait reopens in the coming weeks, the re-engineered supply chains now being established are likely to persist, raising structural costs for the industry worldwide.
Boston Warwick’s Commitment to Frequent Updates
The situation remains highly fluid. Boston Warwick will continue to issue updates every 48–72 hours. Our next scheduled update will be published on 29 April 2026.
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Subscribe to UpdatesSOURCES
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – Oil Market Report, April 2026
- IATA Fuel Monitor and Regional Reports
- Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times (April 2026 coverage)
- National energy ministry statements (Philippines, Pakistan, Australia, Japan)
Media and Partnership enquiries: Contact@BostonWarwick.com