Europe’s Top 50 Jet Fuel Risk Airports – Full Dataset (23 Apr 2026)

23 Apr

23 April 2026 | By James Doyle, Boston Warwick

Europe’s aviation sector is facing a structural crisis that goes far beyond the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. What began as a supply shock in late February has become a stock-depletion emergency. The International Energy Agency now estimates Europe has roughly five weeks of jet fuel cover left at current consumption rates, while Airports Council International Europe warns that systemic shortages could appear within three weeks if tanker traffic does not resume.

Yet the flight reductions already visible are not primarily caused by physical shortages. They are commercially driven — a rational response by airlines protecting margins in an environment of record fuel prices and uncertain supply. Airlines are proactively trimming loss-making routes and optimising capacity rather than being forced to ground aircraft because tanks are empty.

The Current State of Play

As of 23 April 2026, the picture across Europe is uneven but increasingly concerning. Italy has already moved into operational restrictions, with temporary refuelling limits imposed at airports including Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice and Treviso. The United Kingdom, by contrast, is in a relatively stronger position than it was three weeks ago, thanks to a sharp increase in US Gulf exports. Nevertheless, on-site stocks at London Gatwick and London Heathrow remain among the tightest in Europe.

The short-haul intra-European network will absorb the largest share of capacity adjustment. Airlines are already consolidating routes and withdrawing from marginal services. Boston Warwick assesses that a 15–20% reduction in short-haul schedules is a realistic base case if the Strait remains closed through the summer. This is overwhelmingly a commercial decision rather than a physical shortage response.

Long-haul flying, by comparison, is expected to see only a modest 1–3% trim. Much of this will also be commercially motivated, although some carriers may elect to protect key long-haul frequencies by sacrificing thinner short-haul rotations.

Updated Risk Ranking: Europe's Top 50 Airports

To provide clarity for airlines, airports, regulators and investors, Boston Warwick has refreshed its proprietary risk model to cover Europe's 50 busiest airports. The ranking is driven primarily by airport on-site stock days, with adjustments for daily jet fuel consumption, national strategic reserves, infrastructure resilience, and the latest operational intelligence.

European Airports Ranked by Jet Fuel Shortage Risk (23 April 2026)

Rank	Airport	IATA	Country	Est. Daily Jet Use (kbpd)	On-Site Stock (days)	National Buffer	ME/Hormuz Exposure
1	London Gatwick	LGW	United Kingdom	35–40	5–8	High (UK national "plentiful")	High
2	Milan Malpensa / Linate	MXP/LIN	Italy	20–25	6–9	Low–Medium	High
3	London Heathrow	LHR	United Kingdom	90–100	7–10	High (national + US imports)	High
4	Frankfurt	FRA	Germany	50–55	7–10	Medium (~7 days national)	Medium–High
5	Paris Charles de Gaulle	CDG	France	70–80 (combined)	8–12	Medium (~7–8 days national)	Medium–High

→ Full table of all 50 airports – Download the complete dataset

The Refining Bottleneck Explained

The current crisis is expensive, but the fundamental problem is not a lack of crude. Crude oil remains available on global markets. The real constraint lies in refining capacity and configuration — the complex process of turning crude into Jet A-1 at the correct specification, in the right locations, and at the necessary scale.

Many European refineries are not optimised for maximum jet fuel yield. Ramping up jet production requires time, investment, and often the right type of crude feedstock. The loss of 20% of Europe's jet fuel supply via the Strait of Hormuz has exposed this structural weakness with brutal clarity.

The US Supply Response

The United States has emerged as the most important swing supplier. US Gulf Coast exports have increased sharply in recent weeks and are already replacing a meaningful share of the volumes previously sourced through the Strait. Boston Warwick has modelled three scenarios for mid-summer 2026:

Pre-Hormuz Crisis
(February 2026)

Partial Reopening
(Hormuz at 50% capacity)

Full Closure
(Hormuz remains closed)

The left chart shows Europe’s supply mix before the crisis. The middle chart reflects the most likely “halfway” scenario in which the Strait eventually reopens at around 50% of previous capacity. The right chart shows the base case if the Strait remains fully closed. In both future scenarios the US Gulf becomes the dominant supplier.

Projected Stock Depletion: The Widening Gap

The chart below illustrates the projected decline in on-site jet fuel stock days for Europe’s 10 highest-risk airports versus its 10 most resilient airports, assuming current consumption rates continue and no major new supply arrives.

The red line shows the rapid draw-down at high-risk airports. These airports are forecast to fall below the critical three-week threshold by mid-May and reach near-zero cover by late May.

The blue line shows the much slower depletion at resilient airports. Even under the same stress scenario, these airports retain a comfortable buffer well into June.

How to read this chart: The widening gap between the two lines is the key insight. High-risk airports face acute pressure from late May onwards, while more resilient airports can absorb the shock for significantly longer.

Short-Haul Consolidation and Long-Haul Resilience

The short-haul intra-European network is expected to bear the brunt of capacity adjustment in the coming months. Airlines are already withdrawing from marginal routes, consolidating frequencies on thinner sectors, and optimising aircraft utilisation to protect profitability amid elevated fuel costs. Boston Warwick assesses that a 15–20% reduction in short-haul schedules is a realistic base case if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer. Importantly, this adjustment is primarily a commercial optimisation rather than a response to physical fuel shortages — carriers are simply removing loss-making flights and reallocating capacity to routes that can still generate acceptable margins under current pricing.

Long-haul flying, by comparison, is likely to see only a modest 1–3% trim. Many long-haul routes remain commercially viable even with higher fuel costs, and carriers are prioritising them where possible. Some airlines may choose to protect key long-haul frequencies by sacrificing thinner short-haul rotations that feed into those hubs, effectively reshaping their networks to safeguard high-yield international services.

Long-Term Structural Implications

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully in the coming weeks, the experience of the past two months will not be forgotten. The vulnerability of relying on a single critical chokepoint has now been permanently etched into corporate and government risk registers across the continent. The re-engineered supply chains currently being established — greater diversification of sourcing, increased reliance on US Gulf exports, alternative Middle East and African routes, and renewed interest in domestic and regional refining capacity — are likely to endure well beyond any temporary resolution of the crisis.

This shift should ultimately deliver a more resilient European jet fuel system. However, resilience comes at a cost. The new supply arrangements will carry structurally higher logistics expenses, greater exposure to transatlantic freight rates, and the need for sustained investment in refining configuration. In short, the industry is moving from a low-cost, high-risk model to a higher-cost, lower-risk model that will shape European aviation economics for years to come.

What Stakeholders Should Watch

Airlines operating from high-risk airports — particularly London Gatwick, London Heathrow, Frankfurt, Paris CDG and the Italian cluster — should accelerate contingency planning. This includes prioritising fuel uplift at more resilient airports where feasible, reviewing summer schedules for potential cuts, and engaging early with slot coordinators regarding temporary “use it or lose it” flexibility.

Regulators may need to consider temporary adjustments to slot rules and EU261 passenger compensation frameworks if physical shortages materialise. Airports themselves should prepare for increased operational complexity, including the potential need for fuel-sharing mechanisms between carriers or even between neighbouring facilities.

Passengers should prepare for higher fares on routes originating from higher-risk airports and the possibility of schedule changes or capacity reductions from late May onwards. While the industry is working hard to minimise disruption, the combination of commercial optimisation and lingering supply uncertainty means some adjustments are now inevitable.

Boston Warwick’s Commitment to Frequent Updates

The situation remains highly fluid. Boston Warwick will issue frequent updates — at minimum every 48–72 hours — tracking tanker movements, refinery output, US export flows, and airport-specific stock levels in real time. Our next scheduled update will be published on 26 April.

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Airline OperationsEnergy Crisis 2026Airport Fuel DataTop 50 Airports Jet Fuel Risk RankingHormuz CrisisAviation Fuel ShortageEuropean AirportsJet Fuel Crisis 2026

James Doyle